From Vulnerability to Resilience: The Tourism-to-Education Funnel in Jamaica

Executive Summary

The paper examines Jamaica’s primary challenge as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS)[i] heavily reliant on tourism. Hurricane Melissa in 2025 inflicted severe damage on the tourism sector, which accounts for nearly a third of the nation’s economy,[ii] with initial losses of approximately “$62 million in the first week.”[iii] This incident underscored the dangers of sector-specific dependence: high income but significant vulnerability.[iv] The study suggests that merely rebuilding hotels is a short-term fix.[v] Instead, it proposes establishing a self-funneling system that diverts a portion of tourism revenue – the “fuel” – into a broad educational network – the ”engine”[vi] – covering everything from primary to higher education. The aim is to reduce dependence by equipping individuals with skills to address challenges such as low export complexity,[vii] persistent labor shortages,[viii] and external shocks.[ix] Ultimately, this approach seeks to foster an economy where tourism benefits all Jamaicans, rather than just a select few.[x]

Initial Research Questions – Why?

The inquiry evaluates the necessity and feasibility of the tourism-to-education funnel. It starts by analyzing the severity of the immediate crisis: How did a Category 5 hurricane turn a tourism shock into a macroeconomic crisis? The response stresses the fragile asset base, noting that only about “70% of 35,000 rooms are expected to be ready soon, with nearly two dozen not reopening until 2026,” worsening the crisis.[xi] The next step is to identify the causes of this fragility: Which structural factors increased vulnerability, and how can they be addressed? The analysis highlights the human capital gap, showing that training often stops at soft skills, which raises instability as “labor informality goes from being an exception to becoming the rule.”[xii] To support sustainable growth, the paper explores which policy mix (tax, education, innovation, digitalization, procurement) can foster an inclusive, long-term growth pattern. This primarily involves fixing structural issues through education. Finally, how can tourism revenue be invested in a comprehensive education system (from early childhood through STEM, vocational training, and lifelong learning) without draining the tourism sector? Success depends on understanding the mechanisms that “promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment, and decent work for all,” while also preparing the workforce to address issues such as climate change and agriculture.[xiii]

Background

Jamaica’s socio-economic landscape reveals ongoing structural challenges despite ongoing national development efforts such as Vision 2030.[xiv] The country has historically prioritized education, with expenditures consistently exceeding the region’s average for over a decade.[xv] However, this investment has not promoted equity, as “lower socio-economic schools rely mainly on public funds, while most high socio-economic schools’ income comes from donations from different sources, which can be used more flexibly.”[xvi] This disparity fundamentally distorts the quality of education available to disadvantaged students. Simultaneously, the tourism sector, while robust enough to attract over 4.15 million visitors and generate “US$4.3 billion in 2024,”[xvii] remains an economic enclave. The country’s commitment to recovery is clear, with officials targeting “total operational readiness by December 15.”[xviii] Yet, this focus maintains the island’s core vulnerability, which is worsened by climate risks that make the “Caribbean the second most hazard-prone region in the world.”[xix] This cycle of vulnerability and unequal resource distribution calls for a transformative approach: transforming the tourism influx into sustainable educational capacity.[xx]

Problem Refinement/Analysis (Five Whys)

The economic collapse in Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa reveals underlying structural failures rooted in educational and policy shortcomings. Why did the hurricane trigger such a sharp GDP decline? Because the economy is heavily concentrated in a single sector, dominated by multinational corporations.[xxi] Why is the asset base primarily tourism-focused? This stems from historical policies such as “industrialization by invitation,” which prioritized attracting foreign investment to easily developed sectors.[xxii] Why hasn’t this narrow focus led to substantial non-tourism growth? The economy lacks diversification of capabilities, lacks advanced skills, and lacks a diversified export profile.[xxiii] Why does this low complexity persist? The main barrier is a continual shortage of human capital in high-value, non-tourism skills, alongside insufficient development of ‘hard-skills.’[xxiv] Why can’t the education system develop these complex skills? It suffers from funding inequalities and misalignment;[xxv] while the government encourages Jamaicans to return, the domestic job market offers limited incentives.[xxvi] This suggests that without comprehensive educational reform and targeted investments – akin to fueling tourism – the economy will struggle to create high-value, high-complexity jobs essential for resilience.

Drivers and Mitigating Factors

Well-documented structural weaknesses are the root causes of this crisis, but the education funnel offers significant mitigating factors.

Export Concentration and Volatility: Economic theory indicates that openness reduces “output volatility only in sufficiently diversified economies.”[xxvii] Jamaica, with its heavily concentrated tourism sector, experiences a higher risk. The recommended approach is a related-product diversification strategy, supported by a detailed quantitative diagnosis of the economic complexity. [xxviii]

Human Capital Mismatch: Although tourism is vital, only 50% of the workforce possess the required behavioral and technical skills.[xxix] This challenge is being addressed through targeted education initiatives led by organizations such as the UNWTO, which has awarded scholarships to “more than 3,000 students from 191 countries” for SIDS certifications.[xxx]

Climate Vulnerability and Food Security: Natural disasters frequently occur, making the Caribbean the “second most hazard-prone region in the world.”[xxxi] To address this, investments in education focus on agri-tech and food sovereignty, enhancing local initiatives such as the Agri-Linkages Exchange (ALEX), which achieved “$1.2 million in sales for over 2,000 farmers.”[xxxii]

Fiscal Constraints and Inefficiency: Governments face budgetary constraints, exemplified by the observation that “urgent COVID-19 responses are likely to harm education systems”[xxxiii] as pressing public health needs reduce available public investment. A proposed solution is to establish a dedicated, ring-fenced fund for education, financed by tourism profits, to ensure the investment remains non-negotiable and sustainable.

Key Actors, Institutions, and their Roles, Interests, and Institutions

The Ministry of Tourism and Economic Growth (MoTEG) manages recovery efforts, including coordinating “financial support, in-kind goods, and volunteers.”[xxxiv] The Ministry of Education, Youth & Information (MOEYI) addresses systemic inequality by ensuring that private funding is available to poorer schools.[xxxv] The University of the West Indies (UWI) and its RDI Fund should go beyond their traditional roles to become proactive “knowledge brokers,” linking research on issues such as “cadmium bioaccumulation, genome sequencing, improving marketing, production, and processing” directly to policy and curriculum.[xxxvi] The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), through its Tourism Online Academy and Jobs Factory, acts as an external partner crucial for closing the skills gap and promoting “decent work.”[xxxvii] Finally, Civil Society/MSMEs, especially farmers and artisans supported by ALEX, demonstrate the inclusive growth strategy, ensuring the tourism dollar “is now retained locally, a regional benchmark, due to deepened linkages with the agriculture, manufacturing, and creative sectors.”[xxxviii] The coordination of these actors around a dedicated education fund is the primary institutional mechanism for the funnel system.

Narratives, Norms, and Values

The success of the proposed policy relies on harnessing existing national narratives, particularly the strong desire for self-determination and local solutions. The “Tourism as Prosperity” narrative[xxxix] offers economic legitimacy to justify funding. This should be complemented by Amartya Sen's core value of Human Development as Freedom, which emphasizes expanding individual capabilities rather than merely material wealth.[xl] Like Sen, I believe that no outsider can better understand a country's struggles than its constituents.[xli] Furthermore, there is a powerful norm of resilience that encourages proactive, long-term risk management rather than reactive aid. This challenges the notion that significant foreign investments, such as in extractive industries, yield “little sectoral spillover effects,”[xlii] thereby promoting a shift toward education-centered indigenous innovation. The increasing emphasis on digital technology is also vital, as digitalization and education are now interconnected as fundamental components of sustainable development.[xliii]

Relationships between Drivers, Mitigating Factors, and Key Actors

Integrating tourism funds into education fosters crucial interdependencies that enhance resilience. The adverse effects of fiscal constraints on educational quality[xliv] are mitigated by a dedicated tourism levy, which helps stabilize the education budget. This steady funding enables MOEYI to prioritize investments in STEM and hard-skills training, thereby directly addressing the human capital mismatch.[xlv] Cultivating local talent increases the capacity needed for economic complexity-led diversification.[xlvi] Additionally, the UWI’s knowledge brokerage links the newly skilled workforce to vital national issues, such as energy vulnerability, exemplified by “the government’s ambitious renewable energy targets for 2030 and the growing interest in renewable R&D,”[xlvii] thereby creating high-value jobs beyond tourism. Ultimately, this comprehensive educational investment reduces the emigration of tertiary graduates and transforms the challenges of “high-volatility in income”[xlviii] into a positive driver for return migration.

Potential Trajectories

The long-term outlook for Jamaica depends on the policy sequence currently being implemented.

Trajectory A: Status Quo/Recovery-Only: This scenario focuses solely on the December 2025 recovery date,[xlix] without implementing structural reforms in education. The long-term prospects are constrained: since 2013, real GDP growth has averaged only “0.38% per year,”[l] resulting in ongoing vulnerability and increasing debt levels.[li]

Trajectory B: Education-Driven Diversification (Optimal Path): This scenario outlines the tourism-to-education funnel, rapidly boosting STEM and technical education. The resulting skilled workforce allows Jamaica to implement the “4 Ws” framework[lii] for diversified, high-complexity exports.[liii] This approach is expected to support steady GDP growth of 2-3% and reduce economic volatility, with resilience becoming a fundamental part of the economy.

Trajectory C: Digital-Labor Augmented Tourism involves strategically integrating technology and AI to enhance innovation among hospitality workers,[liv] thereby directly supporting the goal of decent work.[lv] While effective, this approach alone does not address the core problem of sectoral concentration and should be combined with diversification (Trajectory B).

Potential Interaction Effects

Cross-sector collaboration will create a multiplying effect crucial for breaking free from the “middle-income trap.”[lvi] 

Positive: Diversification and digital upskilling are key. Investing in digital literacy through the UNWTO and MOEYI[lvii] helps workers develop skills for emerging high-complexity sectors highlighted by complexity metrics.[lviii] This creates a competitive, innovative workforce where “employees who perceive AI-supported autonomy engage in more exploratory activities in the presence of AI trust and proactive personality,” thereby enhancing innovation across the broader economy.[lix] 

Positive: Stable Education Funding and R&D Connections: Dedicated tourism funds ensure consistent financing for the UWI Fund, supporting long-term public-private partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure and energy.[lx] This responds to the need for “strategic public-private partnerships to address research and development gaps, and gaps in infrastructure,” which are significant present constraints.[lxi]

Negative: Tourism Tax Rate versus Investment. A key trade-off is evident: if the government sets tourism taxes too high – such as above the rates that remain internationally competitive – it may deter Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is vital for maintaining the current hotel capacity, thus possibly limiting the “fuel” supply.[lxii] This underscores the importance of finding a careful balance.

Theory of Change

The core Theory of Change (ToC) posits that enhancing human capabilities through targeted and equitable educational investments is crucial for sustainable development.[lxiii] The primary input is tourism revenue: implementing a dedicated, legislated tourism levy (e.g., 5%) to create a National Education Development Fund (NEDF). The main activities include MOEYI ensuring the fair allocation of funds,[lxiv] revamping curricula to incorporate STEM, agritech, and hard skills, and supporting UWI’s role in knowledge sharing to address national issues such as climate change.[lxv] Expected outputs comprise specific targets: more certified workers with UNWTO-relevant skills, a greater share of tourism earnings kept locally,[lxvi] and progress measured by the Green Complexity Index (CGI).[lxvii] Mid-term outcomes focus on reducing structural poverty, diversifying exports, and increasing employment outside the tourism sector. The goal is a resilient, inclusive Jamaica that achieves developed-country status by maximizing human potential and equipping citizens with the tools to address their own problems, including climate, agriculture, water, and health.[lxviii]

Recommendations

The final recommendations are focused and evidence-driven, aimed at implementing the tourism-to-education funnel.

1.     Establish a dedicated tourism levy and ensure fair distribution by passing legislation for a tourism tax to create a ring-fenced NEDF. This fund should then be allocated according to MOEYI’s needs-based funding formula to address existing disparities and help attract and retain qualified teachers in remote and hard-to-staff school regions.[lxix]

2.     Mandate the integration of hard skills and digital literacy by collaborating with the UNWTO to incorporate specialized training in fields such as data analytics, project management, and digital literacy into national vocational and college curricula.[lxx] At the same time, encourage and promote innovation among hospitality industry workers.[lxxi]

3.     Institutionalize Knowledge Brokerage and Innovation by officially empowering the UWI and its RDI Fund to serve as the country’s main “catalytic interface,”[lxxii] translating university research on climate-smart agriculture, energy vulnerability,[lxxiii] and water resource management into practical government policies and educational curricula.

4.     Enhance local ties through procurement policies by implementing a “Local-First” law that raises standards for local procurement in the tourism sector. This formalizes and broadens successful programs such as ALEX,[lxxiv] ensuring that tourism benefits are distributed more equitably and fostering MSME growth beyond the immediate tourism area.

5.     Counteract Reverse Human Capital Flight (Brain Drain) by tackling the economic drivers encouraging skilled workers to leave. Use NEDF resources to offer attractive non-salary incentives, enhance working conditions, and bolster domestic specialization in key sectors such as nursing education.[lxxv] 

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[i] Genave, Blancard, and Garabedian, “An Assessment of Energy Vulnerability,” 1.

[ii] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 5.

[iii] Robles and Schaff, “What Jamaica Wants,” sec. 1.

[iv] Sheller, “Reconstructing Tourism,” 1436.

[v] Sheller, “Reconstructing Tourism,” 1440.

[vi] Richards-Kennedy and St Brice, “Knowledge Brokerage,” 18.

[vii] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 2.

[viii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 1.

[ix] Haddad et al., “Trade Openness,” 766.

[x] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[xi] Robles and Schaff, “What Jamaica Wants,” sec. 1.

[xii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[xiii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[xiv] UNESCO, “Jamaica: Mapping the Landscape,” 9.

[xv] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 8.

[xvi] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 5.

[xvii] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[xviii] Travel And Tour World, “Jamaica to Recover Swiftly,” sec. 2.

[xix] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 9.

[xx] Sen, Development as Freedom, 1.

[xxi] Lee, Hampton, and Jeyacheya, “The Political Economy of Precarious Work,” 201.

[xxii] Bennett, “A Retrospective Look,” 129–30.

[xxiii] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 2.

[xxiv] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 1.

[xxv] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 5.

[xxvi] Lewis, “Training Nurses for Export,” 93.

[xxvii] Haddad et al., “Trade Openness,” 766.

[xxviii] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 4.

[xxix] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 1.

[xxx] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 3.

[xxxi] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 9.

[xxxii] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[xxxiii] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 8.

[xxxiv] Travel And Tour World, “Jamaica to Recover Swiftly,” sec. 5.

[xxxv] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 5.

[xxxvi] Richards-Kennedy and St Brice, “Knowledge Brokerage,” 18.

[xxxvii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[xxxviii] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[xxxix] Travel And Tour World, “Jamaica to Recover Swiftly,” sec. 7.

[xl] Sen, Development as Freedom, 4.

[xli] Sen, Development as Freedom, 4.

[xlii] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 8.

[xliii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[xliv] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 8.

[xlv] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 1.

[xlvi] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 2.

[xlvii] UNESCO, “Jamaica: Mapping the Landscape,” 44.

[xlviii] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 24.

[xlix] Travel And Tour World, “Jamaica to Recover Swiftly,” sec. 2.

[l] UNESCO, “Jamaica: Mapping the Landscape,” 12.

[li] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 8.

[lii] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 4.

[liii] Mealy and Teytelboym, “Economic Complexity,” 1.

[liv] Kong et al., “How Does Artificial Intelligence (AI) Enhance Hospitality Employee Innovation,” 262.

[lv] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[lvi] World Bank, “The Middle-Income Trap.”

[lvii] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 2.

[lviii] Hidalgo, “Policy Implications,” 2.

[lix] Kong et al., “How Does Artificial Intelligence (AI) Enhance Hospitality Employee Innovation,” 262.

[lx] UNESCO, “Jamaica: Mapping the Landscape,” 42.

[lxi] Alleyne, “Structural Constraints,” 32.

[lxii] Lee, Hampton, and Jeyacheya, “The Political Economy of Precarious Work,” 201.

[lxiii] Sen, Development as Freedom, 1.

[lxiv] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 5.

[lxv] Richards-Kennedy and St Brice, “Knowledge Brokerage,” 3.

[lxvi] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[lxvii] Mealy and Teytelboym, “Economic Complexity,” 1.

[lxviii] Sen, Development as Freedom, 1.

[lxix] Chegwin, Hobbs, and Thailinger, School Financing in Jamaica, 32.

[lxx] Pololikashvili, “Promoting Sustainable Development,” 1.

[lxxi] Kong et al., “How Does Artificial Intelligence (AI) Enhance Hospitality Employee Innovation,” 262.

[lxxii] Richards-Kennedy and St Brice, “Knowledge Brokerage,” 4.

[lxxiii] Genave, Blancard, and Garabedian, “An Assessment of Energy Vulnerability,” 1.

[lxxiv] Office of the Prime Minister (Jamaica), “Jamaica’s Tourism Sector Enters New Era of Inclusive Growth,” sec. 3.

[lxxv] Lewis, “Training Nurses for Export,” 80.